composite
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recession 12m
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NY Fed model · -
10y-2y curve
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steep · FRED T10Y2Y
vix · fear
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complacent
theses
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live tape
GOLD
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OIL
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YIELD-10Y
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SPY
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VIX...
DXY...
2Y...
10Y-2Y...
macro context
CPI YoY...
PCE YoY...
U-Rate...
Fed Funds...
Recession Prob 12m...
structural · land + credit cycle
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Credit cycle
Credit card delinquencyn/a
Business loan delinquencyn/a
Consumer credit outstanding (bn)n/a